Aier(300015) 平安证券·2024-11-01 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth has slowed due to weak consumer demand and healthcare policy impacts, with a reported revenue of 16.302 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.58% [2][3]. - The net profit for the same period reached 3.452 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, while the third quarter saw a revenue decline of 0.68% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company demonstrates operational resilience with a net profit margin of 22.5% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 3.499 billion, 3.988 billion, and 4.500 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 21.643 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 3.499 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.2% increase year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to be 49.8% in 2024, slightly down from 50.8% in 2023 [4]. - The net margin is projected at 16.2% for 2024, compared to 16.5% in 2023 [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, down from 17.8% in 2023 [4]. Cash Flow and Debt - The operating cash flow for 2023 is reported at 5.212 billion yuan, with projections of 6.483 billion yuan for 2024 [7]. - The total liabilities for 2023 stand at 10.162 billion yuan, with a projected decrease to 9.339 billion yuan by 2026 [6].