SKSHU(603737) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-11-01 03:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance continues to be under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 2.81% to 9.146 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 26.00% to 410 million yuan [1] - The report anticipates a potential turning point in the industry chain, as the real estate market is expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in demand for building materials [2] - The company has optimized its distribution channels in recent years, positioning itself to benefit from market recovery [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 3.385 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.87% [1] - The main product revenue breakdown shows: - Home decoration wall paint revenue of 2.228 billion yuan, up 14.14% year-on-year - Engineering wall paint revenue of 2.979 billion yuan, down 12.51% year-on-year - Base materials and auxiliary materials revenue of 1.879 billion yuan, up 4.18% year-on-year - Waterproof membrane revenue of 1.002 billion yuan, up 13.02% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.66%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters increased by 53.24% year-on-year to 916 million yuan, mainly due to reduced cash payments for goods and services [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 620 million yuan, 864 million yuan, and 1.095 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.18, 1.64, and 2.08 yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 38, 27, and 21 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [2]