CBC(SH:600132) Huafu Securities·2024-11-01 03:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - Despite macroeconomic disturbances impacting revenue, the company's fundamentals remain strong, with a slight increase in beer sales volume and stable pricing [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.348 billion, 1.432 billion, and 1.494 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to third-quarter sales pressure [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, while net profit decreased by 0.9% to 1.332 billion yuan [2]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 4.202 billion yuan, down 7.11% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 10.1% to 431 million yuan [2]. - The beer sales volume for the first three quarters was 2.657 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2%, with an average price of 4,916.45 yuan per ton [3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 49.2%, showing a slight increase from the previous year [3]. Segment Performance - Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy segments for the first three quarters was 7.625 billion, 4.764 billion, and 318 million yuan respectively, with the economy segment showing a significant growth of 14.84% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the high-end segment revenue decreased by 9.24%, while the economy segment grew by 19.97% [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region for the first three quarters showed a decline in the Northwest region by 2.5%, while the South region grew by 1.13% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the Northwest region's revenue fell by 10.48%, while the South region's revenue decreased by 9.28% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.8 [4][5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 14 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.9% [4][5].