BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Huafu Securities·2024-11-01 03:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business is under pressure, while the whiskey segment is poised for growth, with new product launches expected to drive future performance [4][2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now projecting net profits of 748 million, 976 million, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to challenges in the pre-mixed cocktail business [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.11%, an increase of 3.25 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company’s selling expense ratio increased to 24.09%, up 3.94 percentage points year-on-year, impacting the net profit margin, which decreased to 23.95%, down 3.06 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The pre-mixed cocktail business generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, a decline of 3.13% year-on-year, with a single-quarter revenue of 671 million yuan in Q3 2024, down 6.58% year-on-year [2]. - The whiskey product line is expected to launch in Q4 2024, presenting significant growth potential for the company [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revised earnings forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a net profit of 748 million yuan in 2024, 976 million yuan in 2025, and 1.241 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 23, and 18 [4].