Milkground(600882) 光大证券·2024-11-01 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved profitability in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 571.7% year-on-year [1]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese is expected to enhance the company's revenue and strengthen its competitive position in the cheese market [4]. - The company has improved its net profit margin due to cost control measures and an increase in the proportion of high-margin cheese products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.9 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 0.9 billion yuan, up 571.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company generated a revenue of 12.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 13.65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. Product and Regional Performance - The revenue from cheese and liquid milk showed positive growth in Q3 2024, with cheese revenue at 9.52 billion yuan (up 23.5% year-on-year) and liquid milk at 0.95 billion yuan (up 18.2% year-on-year) [2]. - The company had a total of 7,648 distributors by the end of Q3 2024, with a net increase of 348 distributors during the quarter [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 28.93%, an increase of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher contribution of cheese revenue [3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 19.17%, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [3]. Strategic Integration - The company completed the cash acquisition of 100% of Mengniu Cheese in July 2024 and is currently in the integration phase, which is expected to enhance profitability and core competitiveness in the cheese segment [4]. - The report anticipates improved performance in the cheese business as the integration progresses and product offerings are refined [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down to 1.12 billion yuan, a reduction of 22%, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain at 1.77 billion yuan and 2.15 billion yuan, respectively [4].