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石头科技:24年三季报点评:思路更进取,更积极谋求成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Stone Technology (688169.SH) [1] Core Insights - The company is adopting a more aggressive growth strategy, shifting from a focus on high profit margins to a scale-driven approach, which is expected to enhance long-term growth [1][2] - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 2.6 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 350 million yuan, a decrease of 43% [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 30% in domestic markets, 50% in North America, 20% in Asia-Pacific, and a recovery in Europe in Q4 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 6,629 million yuan - 2023A: 8,654 million yuan - 2024E: 10,992 million yuan - 2025E: 13,024 million yuan - 2026E: 15,210 million yuan - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 1,183 million yuan - 2023A: 2,051 million yuan - 2024E: 2,138 million yuan - 2025E: 2,314 million yuan - 2026E: 2,720 million yuan - Earnings Per Share: - 2023A: 11.10 yuan - 2024E: 11.58 yuan - 2025E: 12.52 yuan - 2026E: 14.72 yuan [1][2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning from a price-driven growth model to a volume-driven strategy, which is seen as a healthier long-term growth method [1] - The shift includes expanding distribution channels and increasing product price ranges, particularly in mature markets like Europe [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of effective volume growth to sustain profitability amid competitive pressures [1][2]