中国重汽：Q3利润超预期，低景气突出头部效应

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 315 million RMB in Q3, representing a year-over-year increase of 98% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8%, exceeding expectations. The improvement in gross and net profit margins is notable, attributed to product structure optimization, continuous export growth, and effective cost control measures [2][3]. - Despite a challenging market environment, the company demonstrated strong performance, benefiting from its leading position in the heavy truck sector and ongoing cost reduction efforts [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was 9.186 billion RMB, down 13.15% year-over-year and 29.19% quarter-over-quarter. The decline in revenue is primarily due to low industry demand and intense competition in the heavy truck market [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 8.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-over-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit margin was 3.4%, up 1.9 percentage points year-over-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The company’s cost control measures led to a reduction in selling and administrative expenses, with selling expenses down 32% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential recovery in the heavy truck market in Q4, driven by the implementation of vehicle replacement policies and increased economic activity. The company is expected to benefit from its scale and cost management, potentially enhancing profit elasticity [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 1.19, 1.52, and 1.88 RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 29.77%, 27.72%, and 23.16% [5]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 19.76 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 times for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong market position and export performance [5][8].