杭可科技：看好海外电池扩产释放设备需求

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 26.01 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of lithium battery production capacity in Europe and North America, leading to increased equipment orders [1][3]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, the company has a strong partnership with overseas clients and is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in the market [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of RMB 780 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34.31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 107 million, down 55.24% year-on-year but up 10.67% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.671 billion, a year-on-year decline of 19.27%, and a net profit of RMB 376 million, down 47.34% year-on-year [1]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.96%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 30.06%, down 8.88 percentage points year-on-year but up 3.68 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.08%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 showing an expense ratio of 18.23%, up 3.53 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Market Expansion and Contracts - The company recently secured contracts for lithium battery back-end equipment from the Volkswagen Group in Spain and Canada, with a total contract value exceeding RMB 1.77 billion, representing over 45% of the company's audited revenue from the previous year [3]. - This partnership is expected to enhance the company's business development in the global new energy battery sector, particularly in Europe and North America [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be RMB 667 million, RMB 924 million, and RMB 1.164 billion, respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for the same period is expected to be RMB 1.11, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.93, respectively [4]. - The target price is based on a 17x PE for 2025, reflecting the company's stronger overseas delivery capabilities and production capacity [4].