BANK OF SUZHOU(002966) 华创证券·2024-11-01 03:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Suzhou Bank with a target price of 8.71 yuan, compared to the current price of 7.64 yuan [3] Core Views - Suzhou Bank achieved double-digit growth in net profit with stable asset quality in Q3 2024 [1] - Revenue growth slowed due to declining net interest income, but net profit maintained double-digit growth thanks to stable asset quality [1] - Loan growth slowed, with corporate loans growing faster than retail loans [1] - Net interest margin (NIM) declined due to rising liability costs [1] - Asset quality remained stable with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio flat at 0.84% and provision coverage ratio at 473.7% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 9.289 billion yuan, up 1.1% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.179 billion yuan, up 11.09% YoY [1] - Cumulative net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.41%, down 7bps from the first half of 2024 [1] - Loan balance grew 14.1% YoY, with corporate loans growing faster than retail loans [1] - Deposit balance increased by 2.569 billion yuan in Q3, up 15.16% YoY [1] Asset Quality - NPL ratio remained flat at 0.84% in Q3 2024 [1] - Provision coverage ratio declined by 13.1 percentage points to 473.7% [1] - Net NPL formation rate decreased by 5bps to 0.74% [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.866 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.407 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 4.601 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.163 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - NIM is projected to decline from 1.58% in 2023 to 1.19% in 2026 [7] - Loan balance is expected to grow from 293.401 billion yuan in 2023 to 442.346 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - Deposit balance is forecasted to increase from 363.820 billion yuan in 2023 to 567.885 billion yuan in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decline from 6.09x in 2023 to 4.67x in 2026 [2] - Price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.71x in 2023 to 0.56x in 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 1.25 yuan in 2023 to 1.64 yuan in 2026 [2]