山西汾酒2024Q3点评：青花环比提速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, an increase of 11.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.940 billion yuan, up by 10.36% [1] - The report indicates that the high-end liquor segment's revenue share has decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 72.0% year-on-year, while the Qinghua series is expected to accelerate growth in Q3 2024 due to inventory destocking [1] - The company has seen a net increase of 172 distributors, indicating a steady growth in both domestic and national market expansion [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.36% [1] - The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 31.358 billion yuan, up by 17.25%, with a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, an increase of 20.34% [1] - The report projects that the company will achieve total revenues of 37.361 billion yuan, 42.626 billion yuan, and 48.683 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.0%, 14.1%, and 14.2% [1][2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 0.75 percentage points to 74.29%, primarily due to an increase in the share of other liquors [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 34.11% [1] - The report anticipates a slight decline in profitability metrics due to the slow recovery of industry conditions [1] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 for 2024, 17 for 2025, and 15 for 2026 [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong cash flow and healthy channel inventory, which lays a solid foundation for future growth [1]