Shenergy(600642) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 04:42Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 10.53, up from CNY 9.63, based on a 13x PE for 2025 [2][4] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by investment income and fair value changes, with net profit up 65.9% YoY to CNY 1.09 billion [2] - Revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 8.8% YoY to CNY 8.69 billion, while 1-3Q24 revenue reached CNY 22.4 billion, up 2.2% YoY [2] - Investment income in Q3 2024 was CNY 520 million, up CNY 150 million YoY, with non-joint venture income contributing CNY 210 million, up CNY 170 million YoY [2] - Fair value changes in Q3 2024 resulted in a net gain of CNY -40 million, an improvement of CNY 230 million YoY [2] - Core business profit (excluding investment income and fair value changes) in Q3 2024 was CNY 1.07 billion, up 30.6% YoY [2] - Electricity generation in Q3 2024 reached 17.4 billion kWh, up 15.9% YoY, with gas-fired power generation up 29.7% YoY to 3.6 billion kWh [2] - The company has consistently paid dividends for 31 years since its IPO in 1993, with cumulative dividends totaling CNY 22.5 billion [2] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue is projected at CNY 29.35 billion, up 0.7% YoY, with net profit expected to reach CNY 3.93 billion, up 13.7% YoY [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 0.80, up from CNY 0.71 in 2023A [3] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 10.5% in 2024E, slightly higher than 10.3% in 2023A [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease to 10.73x in 2024E from 12.20x in 2023A [3] Market Data - The company's market cap is CNY 42.19 billion, with a 52-week price range of CNY 5.77-9.24 [5] - The current price is CNY 8.62, with a 12-month absolute return of 53% and a relative return of 45% compared to the index [5][8] Balance Sheet Highlights - Shareholders' equity stands at CNY 37.19 billion, with a book value per share of CNY 7.60 [6] - The net debt ratio is 41.54%, indicating moderate leverage [6] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is 9.9x, with Shenneng's PE at 11.1x, slightly higher than peers [10] - Shenneng's 2025E EPS of CNY 0.78 is higher than peers like GD Power (CNY 0.51) and Huaneng Power (CNY 0.83) [10]