立高食品24Q3点评：奶油拉动，费率优化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for Q3 was 940 million yuan, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, an increase of 35.1% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 70 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 57.4% year-on-year [1] - The report emphasizes that the growth in the company's revenue is driven by the cream segment, which has led to a high increase in raw material business. The revenue from frozen baked goods and baking raw materials accounted for 58% and 42% of total revenue respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7% and +30% [1] - The report suggests that with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Luhua factory, the cream products are expected to continue driving growth, and the adjustments in the supermarket channel are anticipated to end, leading to a recovery in growth [1] Revenue Analysis - For Q1-Q3, the revenue from circulation, supermarkets, and new retail in the catering sector accounted for 55%, 27%, and 18% of total revenue respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, -10%, and +20% [1] - The report indicates that the decline in baked goods sales is due to the impact of adjustments in the supermarket channel, while the baking raw materials segment has seen a year-on-year growth of over 70% driven by cream [1] Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 31.3%, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin baking raw materials. However, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased by 1.9 percentage points to 7.2% due to effective cost control [1] - The report forecasts that the company will achieve operating revenues of 3.73 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.58 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 11.1%, and 10.5% [3][4]