Kewell(688551) 中邮证券·2024-11-01 05:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, reflecting a downward adjustment in expectations [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 380 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31.4% to 50 million yuan [3][4]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a downturn in the downstream renewable energy sector, leading to intensified competition in the testing power supply business and a decrease in gross margins [3]. - The report highlights the potential for an increase in hydrogen energy demand, supported by recent government initiatives aimed at promoting renewable energy hydrogen production [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin and net margin were 49.0% and 13.5%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 14.9%, primarily due to higher costs related to prototype investments and marketing [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 610 million, 750 million, and 950 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 110 million, 140 million, and 180 million yuan [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.42 [6][8]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 24.4% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2024, indicating a potential increase in leverage [8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected EBITDA of 120.44 million yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of -9.03% [6][8].