Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Guoyuan Securities·2024-11-01 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with total revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [1]. - The high-end and mid-range liquor segments faced pressure, with revenue for high-end liquor in Q3 2024 down 22.70% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its distribution channels, with direct sales channels showing growth while wholesale channels faced challenges [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 74.76%, and the net profit margin was 30.05%, showing stability compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin decreased to 71.91%, and the net profit margin was 30.28%, impacted by an increase in taxes and fees [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.756 billion, 1.889 billion, and 2.020 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.02%, 7.57%, and 6.94% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.09%, -27.36%, and +44.47% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 1.139 billion, 13 million, and 21 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [1]. Channel Performance - The company reported a decline in wholesale revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.80% in Q3 2024, while direct sales revenue increased by 19.70% [1]. - The number of distributors in the province increased by 2, while the number outside the province decreased by 1, indicating a dynamic adjustment of the distribution network [1]. Market Outlook - The company is projected to have a market capitalization of 23.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The report indicates a stable outlook for the company's profitability despite current challenges in the high-end liquor market [1].