周大生：公司信息更新报告：经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄势能

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its operating performance, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 13.5% and a net profit decline of 21.9% for the first three quarters of 2024. The third quarter alone saw a revenue drop of 40.9% [1][2] - Despite the challenging environment, the company is expanding its channels, which is expected to enhance market share and build momentum for future growth. The report anticipates a recovery in growth elasticity once gold prices stabilize [1][3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now projecting net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.14, and 1.30 yuan [1][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 10.81 billion yuan, with a significant decline in the third quarter [1][2] - The embedded and pure gold product segments saw revenue declines of 22.5% and 15.0% respectively [2] - The company's self-operated offline and e-commerce channels showed growth, while the franchise business declined by 19.8% due to high gold price volatility affecting inventory confidence among franchisees [2] Channel Expansion and Product Development - The company opened 474 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, increasing the total number of stores to 5,235, with a focus on both franchise and self-operated channels [3] - The company is leveraging the "national trend" to enhance its product offerings, including a collaboration with the "National Treasure" brand to launch new gold jewelry products [3] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 14.396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 27.5%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points, while the net margin was 9.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points [2][4] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 11.4, 9.9, and 8.7 respectively, indicating a reasonable valuation [1][4]