YTCO(SH:600066) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-11-01 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 27.04% for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a total revenue of 24.075 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.432 billion yuan, which is a 131.49% increase [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 1.111 billion yuan, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [1]. - The bus export performance remains strong, with a 19.3% year-on-year increase in bus sales, totaling 31,346 units from January to September 2024 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies aimed at boosting public bus demand, including substantial subsidies for new energy city buses and battery replacements [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.424 billion yuan, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.47 yuan, leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.18 [2][3]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenues expected to reach 39.864 billion yuan in 2025 and 46.521 billion yuan in 2026, alongside EPS of 1.87 yuan and 2.25 yuan respectively [2][3]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.246 billion yuan in 2024, 4.138 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.985 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 78.65%, 27.47%, and 20.46% respectively [3][4]. Industry Outlook - The commercial vehicle industry is rated as "stronger than the market," with expectations of a relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market over the next six months [5]. - The report highlights that the company, as a leading player in the new energy bus sector, is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in the tourism sector and the resumption of overseas markets [1].