LAO BAI GAN JIU(SH:600559) Soochow Securities·2024-11-01 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.09 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1.62 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily impacted by a slowdown in the Hebei region and intensified competition in Anhui, while the Wuling brand showed a recovery in growth [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's liquor revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth was 11.9%. The slowdown in Q3 was mainly due to the impact from Hebei and increased competition in Anhui [3] - The revenue from high-end liquor and mid-to-low-end liquor in Q3 increased by 9.9% and 2.3% respectively, with the growth in products priced above 100 yuan mainly driven by Wuling [3] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin improved, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 66.8%. The company has been effectively managing costs, leading to better-than-expected margin performance [4] - The net profit margin in Q3 increased by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a high base last year and a reduction in tax rates [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 790 million, 950 million, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 20%, and 20% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24, 20, and 16 for 2024-2026 [4]