NHD(002946) 民生证券·2024-11-01 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance during the off-season, maintaining a high level of profitability. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk business showed steady growth, reflecting the company's strong operational resilience. The company continued to implement its "Fresh and Sour Dual Strong" strategy, enhancing its market share through improved channel coverage [2][3]. - The decline in raw milk prices and structural optimization contributed to an increase in gross profit margins. The company achieved a gross margin of 29.1% for the first three quarters, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.8% [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 550 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 790 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 19.0%, and 21.5% [4][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and a shift towards higher-end products [3].