YanKershop(002847) 华鑫证券·2024-11-01 06:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Revenue continues to grow at a high rate, with momentum remaining strong [1] - Channel structure adjustments have lowered gross margins [1] - The company achieved revenue of 3.861 billion yuan in 2024Q1-Q3, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 493 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% [1] - In 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - Gross margin in 2024Q3 decreased by 2 percentage points to 30.62%, mainly due to changes in channel structure [1] - The company aims to achieve a mid-term net profit margin target of 15% by focusing on brand building and enhancing B-end brand recognition [1] Business Performance and Strategy - Membership-based supermarkets maintain high momentum, with the "Egg King" quail eggs entering Sam's Club, achieving monthly sales of tens of millions [1] - The company maintains a leading position in the snack retail channel and has deep strategic cooperation with snack stores, showing high growth momentum [1] - The quantitative distribution channel focuses on building core products, with average double-digit growth this year, and is a key breakthrough direction for the next 3-5 years [1] - E-commerce channel achieved monthly sales exceeding 100 million yuan since Q2, with online pricing higher than offline for the "Big Devil" konjac product category [1] - The company has entered the nut and poultry product categories, promoting external growth through channel sinking and organizational restructuring [1] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 are 2.33/3.04/3.78 yuan, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 22/17/13 times [1] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 26.0%, 25.1%, and 22.3%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 25.9%, 30.0%, and 24.6%, respectively [2] - ROE is expected to be 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 32.9%, 33.2%, and 33.5%, respectively [3] - Net profit margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 12.5%, 13.0%, and 13.2%, respectively [3] - Asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 46.0% in 2024 to 38.5% in 2026 [3] - Total asset turnover is forecasted to increase from 1.6 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2026 [3]