GUJING(000596) 国信证券·2024-11-01 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 13.6%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 19.07 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company demonstrated resilience in the domestic market despite a challenging environment for liquor demand in Anhui province. The revenue growth is attributed to the stable demand for its main products priced around 200 yuan and the strong brand power of Gu 16, which has benefited from the upgrade in price points [5][6]. - The overall profitability remains stable, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 1.55 percentage points due to product structure pressure and increased promotional expenses during festive seasons [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating cash flow was 1.334 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year, and sales cash receipts were 5.460 billion yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting revenues of 23.71 billion, 26.94 billion, and 30.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.6%, and 12.7% respectively [7][8]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 5.599 billion, 6.563 billion, and 7.656 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.0%, 17.2%, and 16.7% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.6x for 2024 and 15.0x for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [7][9]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a total market capitalization of approximately 99.594 billion yuan [3]. Market Context - The report highlights the competitive landscape within the liquor industry, with Gujing Gongjiu maintaining a strong brand presence and pricing power in the domestic market [5][6]. - The overall trend in the industry suggests a gradual recovery in liquor consumption, with Gujing Gongjiu positioned to benefit from ongoing consumption upgrades in its domestic market [7].