五粮液：第三季度报表质量较高，规划分红率不低于70%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][9] Core Views - The company reported a strong third-quarter performance with a revenue increase of 8.60% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 9.19% [2][5] - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% and a minimum of 20 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, which is expected to boost investor confidence [2][7] - The company is adjusting its product strategy in response to market demand, maintaining a controlled volume strategy for its flagship product while ensuring reasonable profits for distributors [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 67.916 billion yuan, up 8.60% year-on-year, and a net profit of 24.931 billion yuan, up 9.19% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, and a net profit of 5.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34% [2][5] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of liquor product revenue and effective cost management [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting total revenues of 89.168 billion yuan, 96.555 billion yuan, and 104.337 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 8.3%, and 8.1% respectively [7][8] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 32.669 billion yuan, 35.858 billion yuan, and 39.498 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 9.8%, and 10.2% respectively [7][8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.7 for 2024 and 16.1 for 2025, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [7][9]