QIANHE(SH:603027) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-01 06:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 699 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.63%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.58% year-on-year to 101 million yuan [2]. - The company is actively controlling inventory and adjusting channels, which has led to continued operational pressure in Q3. Revenue from soy sauce and vinegar in Q3 2024 was 435 million yuan and 85 million yuan, respectively, down 13.82% and 15.67% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin slightly improved, with Q1-3 2024 and Q3 2024 gross margins at 36.20% and 37.54%, respectively. The increase in Q3 gross margin is attributed to a decline in some raw material prices [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.45%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The company expects revenues of 3.24 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.1%, 11.3%, and 12.2% [2][5]. Cost and Expenses - The sales expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 14.93%, an increase of 2.98 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in revenue scale affecting cost efficiency and increased market personnel expenses due to intensified industry competition [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the quality of its distributors, with a total of 3,424 distributors as of the end of Q3 2024, a net decrease of 136 from the previous quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue facing operational pressure in the short term due to intensified market competition and weak demand. However, it has been actively adjusting its strategies since Q2, focusing on product quality and optimizing its product system [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 500 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 630 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.3%, +11.8%, and +11.5% [2][5].