招商轮船：美元汇率拖累Q3业绩，油散向好凸显周期价值

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was negatively impacted by the US dollar exchange rate, while the oil shipping sector shows positive cyclical value [2] - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 25,881.01 million RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.88%, but is expected to recover with a growth of 4.62% in 2024 [2][3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4,836.97 million RMB in 2023, with a slight decline of 4.89%, followed by a recovery to 5,078.62 million RMB in 2024 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022: 29,708.41 million RMB - 2023: 25,881.01 million RMB - 2024E: 27,077.25 million RMB - 2025E: 28,147.76 million RMB - 2026E: 30,053.83 million RMB [2][3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022: 5,085.89 million RMB - 2023: 4,836.97 million RMB - 2024E: 5,078.62 million RMB - 2025E: 6,354.00 million RMB - 2026E: 7,888.36 million RMB [2][3] - Key Financial Ratios: - ROE for 2023 is 13.11%, expected to decrease to 12.58% in 2024E, then recover to 15.75% by 2026E [2][3] - P/E ratio is projected to be 11.31 for 2023, decreasing to 6.94 by 2026E [2][3] - Cash Flow: - Operating cash flow for 2023 is 8,917.30 million RMB, expected to decrease slightly to 8,460.58 million RMB in 2024E [3]