泸州老窖：主动降速化风险，为长期蓄力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with total revenue, operating income, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 243.04 billion, 243.04 billion, 115.93 billion, and 115.64 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.76%, 10.76%, 9.72%, and 10.24% [4][5] - The company is expected to adopt further control measures in response to weak business demand, which may lead to a more favorable position in the coming year [5] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue, operating income, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 73.99 billion, 73.99 billion, 35.66 billion, and 35.7 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 0.67%, 0.67%, 2.58%, and 3.52% [4] - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 88.43% and 47.70%, showing slight declines of 0.01 and 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s cash collection for the first three quarters was 282.69 billion yuan, up 2.26%, with a net cash flow from operations of 124.65 billion yuan, up 37.69% [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 311.41 billion, 326.83 billion, and 358.67 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.00%, 4.95%, and 9.74% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 135.27 billion, 143.03 billion, and 158.38 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.12%, 5.74%, and 10.73% respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 9.19, 9.72, and 10.76 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times based on the current stock price [5]