海泰新光：2024Q3业绩仍承压，拐点有望于2024Q4到来

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Haitui New Light (688677) [1] Core Views - Performance pressure in 2024Q3, with a potential turning point expected in 2024Q4 [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 319 million, down 15.30% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 97 million, down 17.60% YoY [1] - In 2024Q3, revenue was RMB 98 million, down 9.39% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 27 million, down 7.00% YoY [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to inventory reduction by a major US customer, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [1] - Strong collaboration with the major US customer, with joint development of next-generation endoscope systems and plans to add anti-fogging features [1] - Overseas capacity expansion is progressing smoothly, with the US subsidiary in Nevada starting to receive orders and the Thai factory expected to achieve mass production by 2025 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 437 million, RMB 542 million, and RMB 650 million, with growth rates of -7.1%, 24.1%, and 19.9% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 133 million, RMB 187 million, and RMB 226 million, with growth rates of -9.0%, 41.4%, and 20.5% respectively [1] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 35x, 25x, and 20x [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin for 2023 was 63.7%, expected to increase to 65.3% in 2024, 66.0% in 2025, and 66.5% in 2026 [3] - ROE for 2023 was 11.3%, expected to be 9.3% in 2024, 11.6% in 2025, and 12.3% in 2026 [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 1.10, RMB 1.55, and RMB 1.87 [3] Operational Highlights - The company's US subsidiary in Nevada passed customer certification in July 2024 and began receiving orders for endoscopes [1] - The 4mm hysteroscope developed for the US customer has entered mass production, with shipments starting in June 2024 [1] - The Thai factory obtained BUI and production licenses in 2024Q3, with plans to apply for customer approval in November and December 2024, aiming for mass production in 2025Q1 [1]