ICBC(601398) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-01 07:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 6.87 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 14% from the current price of 6.04 CNY [6][24]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 0.13% for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an improvement compared to earlier quarters [2][9]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.43%, suggesting reduced pressure on future earnings due to adjustments in loan and deposit rates [2][11]. - The liquidity coverage ratio has improved, indicating enhanced capacity to manage potential operational pressures [2][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 626.4 billion CNY, with a net interest income of 476.7 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.81% and 4.94% respectively, but with a positive trend in growth rates compared to mid-year [2][5][9]. - The total interest-earning assets reached 468,890 billion CNY, an increase of 10,228 billion CNY from the first half of 2024, reflecting a 2.2% quarter-on-quarter growth [2][16]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.35%, with a provision coverage ratio of 220.3%, indicating a solid asset quality [3][22]. Profitability and Valuation Forecast - The forecast for net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 0.79%, 0.87%, and 1.89% respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 10.45 CNY, 11.45 CNY, and 12.50 CNY [4][24]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease from 5.97 in 2022 to 5.71 by 2026 [25].