Asymchem(002821) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 07:20Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating [3][4] - Target price raised to 97.16 RMB (previously 80.00 RMB) [3][4] Core Views - Revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 was 4.14 billion RMB (-35.1% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million RMB (-67.86% YoY) [3] - Q3 revenue was 1.443 billion RMB (-18.09% YoY), with net profit of 211 million RMB (-59.68% YoY), meeting expectations [3] - Adjusted 2024-2026 EPS forecasts to 2.73/3.47/4.25 RMB (previously 2.94/3.59/4.50 RMB) [3] - Q3 gross margin improved to 46.32%, up 5.64 percentage points from Q2, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements in small molecule business [3] - Emerging business revenue was 745 million RMB, down 8.37% YoY, with gross margin at 19.97%, down 12.99 percentage points [3] - New orders grew over 20% YoY in 2024H1, with orders from European and American markets growing faster than overall order growth [3] - Overseas expansion: Europe's first R&D and pilot base, Sandwich Site, began operations in 2024Q3 [3] - Peptide capacity exceeds 20,000L, securing multiple late-stage clinical projects and GLP-1 peptide commercialization orders [3] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-Q3 gross margin was 43.60%, down 1.09 percentage points YoY excluding large orders [3] - 2024H1 order backlog was 970 million USD, ensuring steady growth [3] - 2024E revenue forecast at 5.958 billion RMB (-23.9% YoY), with net profit of 1.003 billion RMB (-55.8% YoY) [8] - 2025E revenue forecast at 7.059 billion RMB (+18.5% YoY), with net profit of 1.275 billion RMB (+27.1% YoY) [8] - 2026E revenue forecast at 8.412 billion RMB (+19.2% YoY), with net profit of 1.564 billion RMB (+22.7% YoY) [8] Valuation and Market Data - Current price: 82.91 RMB [4] - 52-week price range: 60.13-157.09 RMB [5] - Market capitalization: 30.488 billion RMB [5] - P/E ratio (2024E): 30.39x [8] - P/B ratio (current): 1.8x [6] - ROE (2024E): 5.6% [8] Industry and Peer Comparison - Peer comparison: Kanglong Chemical (300759.SZ) with 2024E P/E of 29.85x, Yaoming Helian (2268.HK) with 2024E P/E of 33.83x, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical (688133.SH) with 2024E P/E of 47.44x [10]