Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 西南证券·2024-11-01 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) with a current price of 67.03 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The overall beer demand is weak due to the macroeconomic environment, leading to pressure on both volume and price. The company expects improvements in the fundamentals in the future [1]. - For the third quarter of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.35 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s beer sales volume in Q3 was 2.155 million tons, a decline of 5.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the industry average decline of 5.3% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.96 billion CNY, down 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.99 billion CNY, up 2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.8%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, with a Q3 gross margin of 42.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price per ton in Q3 2024 was 4,126 CNY, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 2,388 CNY in Q3 2024, contributing to the improvement in gross margin [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.1% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased marketing efforts during the peak season [2]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.2% in Q3 2024 [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its product strategy with new product launches and upgrading its product mix from low-end to mid-range offerings, which is expected to drive price improvements [3]. - The company plans to accelerate its market development strategy to strengthen its market presence and sales network [3]. - Looking ahead, the company anticipates a gradual reduction in channel inventory levels and stable profit growth due to ongoing cost benefits [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.27 CNY, 3.55 CNY, and 3.84 CNY, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 19x, and 17x [3].