NNCI(600301) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 07:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to perform well due to high prices of tin and antimony, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit year-on-year [4] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, anticipating net profits of 748 million, 808 million, and 1.078 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, up 100.91% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.70%, and a net profit of 192 million yuan, up 88.46% year-on-year [4] - The company’s tin production in Q3 2024 was 2,578.84 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year, while the average market price for tin was approximately 260,000 yuan per ton [5] - The antimony production in Q3 2024 was 4,422.85 tons, with an antimony price of about 160,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 31% increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.18, 1.28, and 1.70 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.2, 14.0, and 10.5 times [4][6] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 3.736 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.175 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.6% [6] Financial Ratios - The gross margin is projected to improve from 47.6% in 2024 to 49.3% in 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 20% [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 19.0% in 2024 to 18.5% in 2026 [6]