IMDTECL(SZ:002128) Xinda Securities·2024-11-01 07:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company benefits from a "coal-electricity-aluminum" integrated industrial model, which enhances its resource and cost advantages, providing strong resilience against risks and promising sustainable development [3][8] - The company has a significant growth potential in the green energy sector, with plans to increase its renewable energy capacity to over 7 GW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][9] - The aluminum production segment is expected to contribute to profit elasticity, with a projected increase in capacity by 35,000 tons by the end of 2025, representing a 40% growth from the current capacity [8][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Huolinhe Mining Bureau, was established in December 2001 and has been transitioning towards renewable energy since 2014 [9] - It is the only platform for coal, thermal power, and aluminum resource integration in the Inner Mongolia region under the State Power Investment Corporation [10] Coal Segment - The company is a leading producer of lignite in Eastern Mongolia, with an annual coal production capacity of 48 million tons and a stable profit margin due to high long-term contract sales [7][23] - The coal sales price has shown a steady increase, with a high proportion of long-term contracts (approximately 85%) mitigating market volatility [29] Power Segment - The company has a total installed power capacity of 7.5 GW, with a significant portion coming from coal-fired power plants that utilize self-produced coal, ensuring stable performance [7][14] - The renewable energy segment is rapidly growing, with plans to expand installed capacity significantly in the coming years [7][9] Aluminum Segment - The company has an aluminum production capacity of 860,000 tons, benefiting from low electricity costs due to self-owned power plants, which enhances profitability [8][14] - The aluminum market is expected to see demand growth driven by the electric vehicle sector, providing further opportunities for profit [8][9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.741 billion, 6.087 billion, and 6.605 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.56, 2.72, and 2.95 yuan [3][4] - The company maintains a strong financial position with a stable gross margin and effective cost control, leading to a favorable outlook for profitability [19][21]