ZMNY(600163) Great Wall Securities·2024-11-01 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance relative to the industry index over the next six months [3][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the leading wind resources in Fujian province and a steady growth in local electricity demand, with historical wind power utilization rates reaching 100% [3]. - The company is the only publicly listed energy platform for its shareholder group, which will allow it to benefit from the release of performance from certain projects and the scarcity of quality wind power assets [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.778 billion, 1.896 billion, and 2.023 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 6.7%, and 6.7% respectively [3]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 736 million, 804 million, and 873 million yuan, with growth rates of 8.5%, 9.1%, and 8.7% respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The company's operating revenue for 2022 was 1,791 million yuan, which decreased to 1,732 million yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 1,778 million yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 729 million yuan in 2022, dropping to 678 million yuan in 2023, with an expected recovery to 736 million yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) was 13.2% in 2022, decreasing to 11.2% in 2023, with projections of 11.0% in 2024 [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 0.38 yuan, expected to decrease to 0.36 yuan in 2023, and projected to rise to 0.39 yuan in 2024 [5][7]. Operational Insights - The company's total power generation in Q3 was 4.8 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year decline, influenced by seasonal changes [3]. - The wind power generation in Fujian was 16.89 billion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.58%, while other regions experienced declines [3]. - The company has a strong competitive position in local resources, with several projects expected to contribute positively to its performance [3].