HAI TIAN(603288) 西南证券·2024-11-01 07:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 9.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a total revenue of 20.4 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.81 billion yuan, which is an increase of 11.2% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company generated revenue of 6.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Revenue Growth Analysis - The main business showed a recovery in growth, with revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products reaching 3.08 billion, 0.58 billion, 1.11 billion, and 1.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.7%, +10.2%, +7.8%, and +15.1% [2] - Offline and online revenue growth rates in Q3 2024 were +8.1% and +45.4% respectively, indicating a strong performance in online sales due to improved channel layout [2] - Revenue growth varied by region in Q3 2024, with East, South, Central, North, and West regions showing growth rates of +19.9%, +7.8%, +11.5%, -0.8%, and +8.1% respectively, with all regions except the West maintaining rapid growth [2] Profitability Improvement - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 36.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin rising by 2.1 percentage points to 36.6% [3] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to cost reductions and enhanced economies of scale [3] - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 0.1 percentage points to 21.8% due to lower costs and improved scale effects [3] Long-term Performance Outlook - The company is focusing on maintaining its core businesses while expanding into new categories such as food and cooking wine, leveraging its platform and channel advantages to increase market share [4] - The recovery in the restaurant channel is expected to support continued performance improvement, and the company has successfully completed a board and management team restructuring, which is anticipated to boost team morale and confidence [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.12 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.37 yuan, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 39x, 35x, and 32x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]