山西汾酒：经营韧性强、报表质量高、适当留力为明年

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with high-quality financial statements, strategically moderating growth to establish a solid market foundation for the upcoming year [2][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 313.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 113.50 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 76.03% and a net profit margin of 36.20% for the first three quarters of 2024, with slight year-on-year improvements [3]. - Cash flow performance was strong, with cash receipts from sales reaching 301.55 billion yuan, a 24.34% increase, and net cash from operations at 114.35 billion yuan, up 56.56% [3][4]. - The company’s revenue from domestic sales was 119.00 billion yuan, growing 11.58% year-on-year, while revenue from external sales was 193.53 billion yuan, increasing by 21.44% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 365.54 billion yuan, 403.33 billion yuan, and 464.03 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.49%, 10.34%, and 15.05% [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 122.83 billion yuan, 135.93 billion yuan, and 158.45 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.67%, 10.67%, and 16.56% respectively [6][8].