COMIX GROUP(002301) 民生证券·2024-11-01 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Comix Group (002301 SZ) [5][7] Core Views - Comix Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 3 399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2 78%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 0 64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5 79% [2] - The slowdown in Q3 revenue growth is attributed to changes in customer order patterns in the B2B business, but a return to high growth is expected in Q4 [2] - The company's cloud video business (Haoshitong) is undergoing internal adjustments, leading to a slight decline in profitability, with Q3 gross margin and net margin at 7 45% and 1 80% respectively [3] - Comix Group is focusing on enhancing its office procurement and MRO solutions, aiming to improve profitability through digital transformation and supply chain optimization [4] - The report forecasts Comix Group's net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 2 4/3 3/3 8 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X/13X/11X [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating cash flow increased by 27 44% year-on-year to 0 77 billion yuan, driven by higher VAT refunds [3] - Accounts receivable and notes increased by 17 40% year-on-year to 3 408 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a turnover period of 162 days, an increase of 8 days [3] - The company's CAPEX in Q3 2024 was 0 09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20% [3] Business Strategy and Outlook - Comix Group is strengthening its office procurement and MRO solutions, focusing on high-value administrative office operation and maintenance material solutions [4] - The company is developing digital employee welfare solutions and marketing material solutions to enhance product integration, supply chain management, and delivery capabilities [4] - In the cloud video business, Comix Group is optimizing its customer structure and focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [4] - The employee welfare business is being customized to meet customer needs and improve profitability [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 13 007 billion yuan in 2024 to 18 377 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18 9% [6][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2 4 billion yuan in 2024 to 3 8 billion yuan in 2026 [5][8] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 10 91% in 2024 to 11 17% in 2026 [8] - ROE is expected to rise from 7 33% in 2024 to 10 72% in 2026 [8]