PSBC(601658) 国投证券·2024-11-01 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to Postal Savings Bank (PSBC) with a 6-month target price of 5.98 CNY [5] Core Views - PSBC's performance showed a moderate recovery in Q3 2024, with a 3.50% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by scale expansion and cost reduction, while narrowing net interest margin (NIM) and provision expenses dragged on performance [1] - The bank's asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.86% and a provision coverage ratio of 301.88% [10] - PSBC is expected to increase its focus on consumer loans and small loans, while continuing to absorb low-cost deposits to leverage its retail banking advantage [10] Asset Side Analysis - PSBC's total assets grew by 9.34% YoY in Q3 2024, with loans increasing by 9.46% YoY, though the growth rate slowed by 1.23 ppts compared to Q2 [2] - Corporate loan structure continued to optimize, with a 13.66% YoY growth in general corporate loans, mainly driven by loans to the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises sectors [2] - Retail loan growth slowed to 7.30% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, with new housing loans contributing 8.94% of the retail loan growth [3] Liability Side Analysis - PSBC's deposit base grew by 11.22% YoY in Q3 2024, with retail deposits accounting for 89.00% of total deposits, reflecting an optimized deposit structure [3] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - PSBC's NIM in Q3 2024 was 1.85%, down 14 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ, primarily due to declining yields on interest-earning assets and an increase in the proportion of interbank assets [4][8] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 1.45% in Q3 2024, down 12 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ, supported by the rapid adjustment of deposit rates following LPR cuts [8] Non-Interest Income - Net non-interest income declined by 0.99% YoY in Q3 2024, but the decline narrowed by 9.34 ppts compared to the previous quarter, with net fee income growing by 0.76% YoY [9] Cost Efficiency - PSBC's cost-to-income ratio improved to 60.29% in Q3 2024, down 2.94 ppts YoY, driven by a 4.17% YoY decline in business and management expenses [9] Asset Quality - PSBC's NPL ratio slightly increased to 0.86% in Q3 2024, up 2 bps QoQ, with the NPL formation rate (annualized) rising to 0.79% [10] - The bank's provision coverage ratio remained strong at 301.88%, indicating sufficient risk buffer capacity [10] Future Outlook - PSBC is expected to maintain a stable asset quality and continue optimizing its loan structure, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, green finance, and technological innovation [2][10] - The bank's NIM is expected to face continued pressure in Q4 2024 due to LPR cuts and the repricing of existing mortgages, but the pressure is likely to ease gradually [8]