pingmei coal(601666) 中原证券·2024-11-01 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][15]. Core Views - The company has initiated a new round of share buybacks, with a planned total of 5 to 10 billion yuan, following a previous buyback of 3 billion yuan completed in September 2024. This move reflects confidence in the company's long-term value [3]. - Despite a decline in coal prices since 2024, the coal industry is expected to remain in an upward cycle in the medium to long term, with the company’s high-quality coking coal being a scarce resource. The ongoing strategy to focus on premium coal is anticipated to enhance profitability [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 23.319 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 0.78% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 34.91% to 2.045 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 23.319 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.78%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.045 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 34.91% [1]. - The third quarter alone saw an operating income of 7.008 billion yuan, down 1.90% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.652 billion yuan, down 27.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 5.998 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.12% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 2.847 billion yuan, 3.315 billion yuan, and 3.557 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.15 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 1.44 yuan [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios based on the closing price of 9.91 yuan per share are projected to be 8.62X, 7.40X, and 6.90X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Market Conditions - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.06 million tons, a decrease of 8.65% year-on-year, while coking coal sales were 20.08 million tons, down 13.09% year-on-year [1]. - The report notes that the coking coal prices are expected to recover due to anticipated demand increases in November and December, driven by macroeconomic policies [3].