CBEST(600729) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 08:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Chongqing Department Store (600729) with a target price of CNY 25.56, unchanged from the previous rating [5] Core Views - Q3 performance was impacted by external factors and high temperatures, but the company's subsidiary, Ma Xiao, showed improvement [3] - The company's fresh discount stores are performing well and are expected to drive a new round of growth [3] - The report is optimistic about the continuous optimization of stores and the potential of fresh discount stores to boost growth [3] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was CNY 4.02 billion, down 13% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 211 million, down 12.4% YoY [10] - Gross margin for the first three quarters was 25.9%, up 0.25 pct YoY, while net margin was 7.1%, down 0.649 pct YoY [10] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was CNY 1.52 billion, down 5% YoY, but Q3 operating cash flow increased by 15% YoY to CNY 461 million [10] Store Optimization and Business Segments - The company added 4 new stores (1 supermarket, 2 appliance stores, and 1 auto trade store) and closed 12 stores (3 supermarkets, 1 appliance store, and 7 auto trade stores) in the first three quarters [10] - As of Q3, the company had a total of 273 stores (50 department stores, 149 supermarkets, 42 appliance stores, and 32 auto trade stores) [10] - The appliance segment benefited from the government's trade-in policy, with sales increasing by over 70% since the policy was implemented [10] Growth Drivers - The company launched its 5th Chongqing Department Store Shopping Festival on October 30, 2024, focusing on "good markets, good products, and good prices" [10] - The company's fresh discount stores have shown strong performance, with daily transaction volume increasing by 49% and transaction frequency by 74% as of the end of September [10] - The first "fresh + discount" super market opened with a sales increase of 580% on the first day, and sales during the National Day holiday increased by 32% [10] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be CNY 18.27 billion, down 3.8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 1.25 billion, down 4.9% YoY [11] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be CNY 2.84, CNY 3.07, and CNY 3.31, with growth rates of -5%, 8%, and 8% respectively [10]