SA(601021) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-01 09:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in performance due to increased volume but decreased prices, while maintaining cost control advantages [1] - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.73% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company’s cost control advantages remain strong, with a leading passenger load factor of 91.79% [2] - The average ticket price has declined, with unit ASK revenue at 0.3991 yuan, down 8.41% year-on-year [3] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to a more relaxed industry supply and overall price decline, with expected net profits of 2.511 billion yuan, 3.078 billion yuan, and 3.925 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 20.436 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profit for 2024E is 2.511 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% growth rate year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is expected to be 2.57 yuan [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14% for 2024E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 21.4 for 2024E [1] Operational Highlights - The company added 7 aircraft in the first three quarters of 2024, bringing the total fleet size to 128 [2] - The overall and domestic available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 17% and 10% respectively compared to the same period last year [2] - The company’s passenger turnover (RPK) grew by 20% overall and 12% domestically compared to the previous year [2]