KinLong(002791) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 09:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance has been negatively impacted by industry trends, but an upward inflection point in performance is anticipated [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33 million yuan, down 77.22% year-on-year [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 108 million yuan, 243 million yuan, and 293 million yuan respectively, reflecting a significant recovery in 2025 and 2026 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 7.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.4% [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.3%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11 million yuan, an increase of 108 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 93.56% [2]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into emerging high-growth regions such as the Middle East and Africa, with overseas revenue accounting for 11.37% of total revenue as of the first half of 2024 [2]. - The overseas market segment, excluding Portugal, saw a cumulative growth of approximately 18% in the third quarter [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.33 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.91 yuan respectively [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios corresponding to the current stock price are 99.6, 44.1, and 36.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2][3].