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河钢资源:2024年三季报点评:Q3业绩承压,期待铜二期项目完全投产

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.651 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.4% to 578 million yuan [1] - The Q3 revenue was 1.395 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year and 15.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 65% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 9.75 percentage points year-on-year to 52.90% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 62.48%, an increase of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 52.90%, down 9.75 percentage points year-on-year and 13.23 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Sales expenses increased by 59.52% year-on-year to 1.638 billion yuan due to higher ore sales [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 808 million, 908 million, and 1.064 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 9x [3][4] Future Outlook - The copper phase II project is progressing, with partial production expected in Q3 2023 and full completion by December 2024, aiming for an annual output of 70,000 tons of copper [3] - The company has a cost advantage in iron ore production, with approximately 130 million tons of magnetite stored on the ground, and plans to increase production through underground mining [3] - The company holds a leading position in vermiculite, accounting for about one-third of global production, with strong supply relationships established with downstream customers [3]