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华鲁恒升:2024年三季报点评:盈利短期承压,销量稳步增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume and revenue have shown steady growth, particularly in acetic acid and its derivatives, with significant increases in various business segments [2]. - The company is advancing its construction projects and improving operational efficiency, with a focus on cost reduction and process optimization [2]. - Future net profits are projected to be 4.00 billion yuan, 4.63 billion yuan, and 5.32 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.89, 2.18, and 2.51 yuan [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 251.80 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30.49 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 30.59 billion yuan [2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 82.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.43%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.81% [2]. - The sales volume of new energy materials reached 1.90 million tons, up 18.81% year-on-year, while chemical fertilizers saw a sales volume of 3.20 million tons, increasing by 40.73% [2]. Business Segments - The acetic acid and its derivatives segment experienced a remarkable sales volume increase of 148.47% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 134.46% [2]. - The organic amine series products had a sales volume of 43.54 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.52%, although revenue declined by 5.78% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits increasing steadily over the next three years [2][3]. - The current price of the stock is 23.50 yuan, with a PE ratio forecasted to decrease from 12x in 2024 to 9x in 2026, indicating potential for price appreciation [4][3].