Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 10:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's cream business is experiencing accelerated growth, while the frozen baking segment is under short-term pressure [1][3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 203 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [2][3] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 271 million, 342 million, and 406 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.60, 2.02, and 2.40 yuan [2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2024, revenue was 936 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [2][3] - The frozen baking revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024, while the cream and sauce business saw a 30% increase [3] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin decreased by 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices [4] - The net profit margin increased by 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, with a decline in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [4] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on single products and improving efficiency through sales structure adjustments and channel integration [5] - The frozen baking segment is still in its early stages, with slow penetration expected to improve in the medium to long term [5] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue growth from 3.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.94 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.1% [6] - The net profit is expected to recover from 73 million yuan in 2023 to 406 million yuan in 2026, with significant year-on-year growth rates [6][9]