海澜之家：Q3销售业绩承压，期待旺季客流改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected 15%+ outperformance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining significantly year-over-year [2] - Main brand sales fell short of expectations due to weak consumer demand, leading to increased sales expenses [2] - Online channels showed strong growth, with a 47% YoY increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Inventory levels rose significantly, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71.4 days to 346.07 days [5] - The company's cash flow position weakened, with operating cash flow down 98.9% YoY for the first three quarters [6] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue was 3.889 billion yuan, down 11.01% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was 271 million yuan, down 64.88% YoY [2] - 2024 full-year revenue forecast is 21.183 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY [7] - 2024 full-year net profit forecast is 2.366 billion yuan, down 19.8% YoY [7] Profitability Ratios - 2024E gross margin is expected to be 45.0%, up from 44.5% in 2023 [7] - 2024E net margin is forecast at 11.0%, down from 13.6% in 2023 [7] - ROE is expected to decline to 12.9% in 2024 from 18.4% in 2023 [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is 12x, up from 9x in 2023 [7] - 2024E P/B ratio is 1x, down from 2x in 2023 [7] - EV/EBITDA is expected to increase to 28x in 2024 from 22x in 2023 [7] Business Segment Performance Main Brand - Revenue declined 4.95% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - Gross margin improved by 0.87 percentage points to 45.33% [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.38 billion yuan, down 26.55% YoY [3] Online Channel - Revenue grew 47% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Gross margin declined 1.9 percentage points to 48.37% [4] - The company is focusing on live streaming and short video platforms to drive online sales [4] Store Network - 104 net store closures in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Direct-operated stores increased by 127, while franchised stores decreased by 231 [4] - Direct-operated channel revenue grew 4.28% YoY, while franchised channel revenue declined 17.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company expects main brand growth to remain stable, with faster growth in e-commerce and overseas business [6] - Traditional Q4 peak season is expected to bring some recovery [6] - The company is working on improving group buying business and reducing losses in sub-brands [6] - Strategic partnerships, including with JD.com's outlet business, are expected to provide new growth momentum [6]