wanhua(SH:600309) Guohai Securities·2024-11-01 10:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9][18] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by weak macro demand, but new projects are progressing steadily [2][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [2][4] - The company is expected to maintain growth with new capacity coming online, enhancing its competitive edge [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.7% [3][4] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.92 billion yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year and down 27.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 9 billion yuan, an increase of 31 million yuan year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 13.4%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Segment Performance Summary - The polyurethane segment generated revenue of 18.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 8.5% year-on-year [5] - The petrochemical segment achieved revenue of 22.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [5] - The fine chemicals and new materials segment reported revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [5] Price Spread Analysis - The average price spread for polymer MDI in Q3 2024 was 10,823 yuan/ton, up 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The average price spread for pure MDI decreased by 21.5% year-on-year to 11,886 yuan/ton [6] - The average price spread for TDI fell by 30.2% year-on-year to 9,243 yuan/ton [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 190.6 billion yuan, 230.5 billion yuan, and 261.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 14.9 billion yuan, 20.4 billion yuan, and 25.9 billion yuan respectively [10][18] - The company is projected to maintain a PE ratio of 16, 12, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18]