五粮液：业绩增速放缓，进一步提升股东回报

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 188.76 CNY based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 67.92 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.93 billion CNY, up 9.2% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 17.27 billion CNY, a 1.4% increase, and a net profit of 5.87 billion CNY, a 1.3% increase, indicating a slowdown in growth due to weak consumer demand and macroeconomic conditions [1]. - The gross margin improved to 77.1% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a sales net profit margin of 38.2% [1]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will not be less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum of 20 billion CNY annually [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.58 CNY, 9.70 CNY, and 10.86 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous forecasts [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected growth rates of 8.9%, 11.9%, and 10.7% respectively [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 75.4% for 2024, with net profit margins projected to increase gradually [3].