中国重汽：公司季报点评：经营韧性凸显，24Q3业绩表现优于行业

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience, with Q3 2024 performance exceeding industry averages despite a challenging market environment. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 33.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.93 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 9.19 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit surged by 98% year-on-year to 0.32 billion yuan [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 33.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 42% increase year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.19 billion yuan, which was a decrease of 13% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit reached 0.32 billion yuan, marking a 98% increase year-on-year [5][6] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 8.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net margin was 4.4%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 45.8 billion yuan, 49.9 billion yuan, and 54.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.31 billion yuan in 2024, 1.49 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.68 billion yuan in 2026. Corresponding EPS for these years are projected to be 1.12 yuan, 1.26 yuan, and 1.43 yuan respectively [6][10] Valuation - As of October 31, 2024, the stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 15 for 2024, 13 for 2025, and 12 for 2026. The PB ratios are approximately 1.3, 1.2, and 1.1 for the same years. The reasonable PE range for 2024 is estimated to be between 16 and 18 times, leading to a fair value range of 17.84 to 20.08 yuan [6][10]