hbky(600985) Guohai Securities·2024-11-01 11:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][8] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal chemical sales have increased quarter-on-quarter, with ethanol gradually contributing to performance growth [1][5] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 566.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.17% [3][4] - The report emphasizes strong cost control capabilities in the coal business, with a slight decline in gross profit per ton year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 194.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.04 billion yuan, down 18.12% year-on-year [3][4] - For the first three quarters, the company produced 1,567.04 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with sales of 1,187.83 million tons, down 14% year-on-year [4][5] Coal Business - The company’s coal production in Q3 2024 was 534.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The average selling price of coal was 1,052.7 yuan per ton, up 3% year-on-year but down 5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin of 48.6% [4][5] Chemical Products - In Q3 2024, the company produced 95.4 million tons of coke, down 4% year-on-year but up 16% quarter-on-quarter, with sales revenue of 16.4 billion yuan [5] - Ethanol production reached 14.8 million tons in Q3, with sales revenue of 7.56 billion yuan, indicating a growing contribution from the ethanol project [5][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 705.2 billion yuan, 739.0 billion yuan, and 784.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 51.9 billion yuan, 56.4 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan [6][8] - The report projects EPS of 1.93 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.43 yuan for the same years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [6][8]