SANY(600031) 华创证券·2024-11-01 11:13Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with significant improvement in revenue and profit growth [1] - Domestic and international markets show positive momentum, benefiting the company's product structure and regional layout [1] - Cost control measures have been effective, leading to a 96.5% YoY increase in Q3 net profit [1] - Domestic market recovery is expected due to policy support, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [1] - Overseas markets, especially in Europe and Africa, continue to perform strongly, with significant growth in sales of small, medium, and large excavators [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 19.3 billion yuan, up 18.9% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.3 billion yuan, up 96.5% YoY [1] - Gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 28.3% and 7.0%, respectively [1] - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios all decreased YoY in Q3 [1] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic engineering machinery industry is stabilizing, with excavator sales down 1.0% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - Policy support is expected to drive demand for medium and large excavators, concrete machinery, and crane machinery [1] International Market Analysis - Overseas revenue accounted for over 60% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [1] - Sales of small, medium, and large excavators in overseas markets grew by 16%, 32%, and 63% YoY, respectively, in August 2024 [1] - The company secured a major order in Indonesia for 2,000 units worth 1.8 billion yuan [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be 79.995 billion, 92.637 billion, and 107.537 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 36.0%, 31.2%, and 23.2% YoY from 2024 to 2026 [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.73, 0.95, and 1.17 yuan, respectively [2] Valuation - Target price set at 23.8 yuan, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [1][2]