A股复盘 | 全球避险 / 2025.11.18 请停止砸盘，我需要养活我的家人 Please stop selling, I need to support my family 販売をやめてください，私は家族を養う必要があります 판매를 중단하세요 가족을 먹여 살려야 해요П 哈哈哈，开头先来个小玩乐，现在正式进入复盘！ 全球进入避险模式了，美股跌、日股跌、加密货币也跌，连黄金都跌！ 投资还是要跟随特朗普，人家之前买了不少债券！ 美国政府道德办公室周六披露的信息显示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在8月下旬至10月初期间至少购买了8200万美元的公司和市政债券，其 中包括受其政府政策影响的公司的债券。具体而言，特朗普购入的公司债发行主体包括英特尔、博通、高通、Meta等科技企业，家得宝、 CVS等零售企业，以及摩根大通、高盛、摩根士丹利等华尔街银行。 | Date Added | Title | 11 | Type | 11 | Name | Agency | J1 | Level | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

"全链布局+本地协同"构建非洲服务网络 人才本土化深耕，培育非洲技术力量 人才是合作共赢的核心纽带，三一始终将本地人才培养放在重要位置。三一打造的多层次人才培养基 地，成为非洲本土技术人才成长的"孵化器"，为非洲基础设施建设与绿色转型注入持久的"人才动能"。 11月14日，"全球南方"媒体智库高端论坛中非伙伴大会考察团走进三一南非配件中心仓库和人才培养基 地，切实感受了三一集团二十余年深耕非洲的成果和"品质改变世界"的使命担当。作为集团海外布局的 关键枢纽，三一南非配件中心仓库不仅是物流配送的核心节点，更以本地人才培养为支撑、社会责任为 己任，成为中非合作中"本地赋能"的鲜活样本。 三一南非配件中心仓库总面积达11487平方米，库存价值约3亿南非兰特，是集团规模最大的海外仓储基 地。 据了解，仓库划分六大功能区域，从轻型配件到重型核心部件，从货物接收到跨境配送，已实现全品类 零部件的高效流转。依托WMS仓储管理系统与SAP的深度集成，仓库通过二维码技术实现出入库全流 程数字化管理，效率较传统模式提升一倍以上。借助与DSV、EPX等本地物流伙伴的合作，货物可快速 送达津巴布韦、博茨瓦纳等南部非洲国家，其中EPX ...

从资金流向上来看，当日工程机械板块主力资金净流入4263.59万元，游资资金净流出1.1亿元，散户资金 净流入6733.06万元。工程机械板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605389 | 长龄液压 | 67.76 | 10.00% | 2.00万 | 1.33亿 | | 301446 | 福事特 | 31.66 | 5.46% | 3.82万 | 1.20亿 | | 600031 | =一重工 | 20.86 | 1.41% | 76.07万 | 15.94亿 | | 000425 | 徐工机械 | 10.11 | 1.30% | 56.91万 | 5.76亿 | | 601100 | 恒立液压 | 88.64 | 0.66% | 4.53万 | 4.02亿 | | 301279 | 金道科技 | 28.96 | 0.56% | 4.30万 | 1.26亿 | | 603273 | 大元智能 | 19.70 | 0.46% | 2.53万 | 4983. ...

2025年10月份，我国新能源重卡整体实销保持超2万辆高水准，同比暴涨了144%。作为新能源重卡市场占比最高的细分领域，新能源 牵引车仍是表现最出色的存在。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 根据第一商用车网最新掌握的终端销量数据（注：本文数据来源为交强险实销口径，不含出口和军车，下同），2025年10月份，国内 新能源重卡销售2.01万辆，环比今年9月份下降17%，同比增长144%。其中新能源牵引车销售1.55万辆，环比下降18%，同比增长 154%，同比增速较上月（+234%）有所缩窄，但也延续了暴涨之态。与新能源重卡市场整体走势相同，新能源牵引车市场在2025年 10月份也交出环比降、同比增的成绩单，而新能源牵引车市场的增速比新能源重卡市场整体增速更高（高10个百分点）。 10月实销1.55万辆，同比增长154%， 渗透率36.40% 2025年10月份，新能源牵引车在新能源重卡市场占到77.34%的份额，较上月（78.28%）小幅下滑。今年1-10月，新能源牵引车在 新能源重卡市场占到75.74%的份额，较2024年全年67.99%的占比明显提升，与去年同期相比则提升了超11个百分点（如上图）。根 据第一 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes seizing growth opportunities arising from industrial upgrades in the machinery sector [4][6] - Investment recommendations focus on capturing growth lines and identifying quality leading companies with core competitiveness [5][7] Group 1: Industry Overview - The machinery industry is entering a second phase of industrial upgrading, with high-end manufacturing poised for significant growth opportunities [11][13] - The industry is characterized by a broad distribution of downstream applications, with numerous sub-sectors categorized into five primary and nineteen secondary industries [39][43] Group 2: Emerging Growth Directions - Key emerging growth areas include humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and unmanned forklifts, driven by AI advancements and energy transformation [6][10] - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to revolutionize productivity and improve human life, with significant market potential supported by national policies [49][53] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery sector has stabilized, with expectations of continued recovery driven by equipment updates and major infrastructure projects [7][10] - Globalization strategies are expected to enhance profitability and smooth domestic cyclical fluctuations, transitioning the industry towards a "globalization + electrification" growth model [7][10] Group 4: Self-Control and Localization - The report identifies significant opportunities in domestic substitution and self-control, particularly in scientific instruments and semiconductor components [7][10] - The focus is on increasing localization rates in core segments, with recommendations for companies in scientific instruments and X-ray detection equipment [7][10] Group 5: Nuclear Power and Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear power sector is experiencing favorable conditions, with ongoing improvements in the nuclear fission power industry and potential growth in controlled nuclear fusion [7][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in nuclear power and fusion technologies for long-term investment opportunities [7][10] Group 6: Value Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of detection services, general equipment, and tire molds as value-driven segments within the machinery industry [7][10] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong cash flow and resilience in the current economic environment [7][10] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - A combination of growth and forward-looking companies is recommended, including those in humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and detection services [7][10] - Long-term investment strategies should prioritize companies with robust fundamentals and competitive positioning in their respective markets [7][10]

Group 1 - The mechanical industry showed a strong performance in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 35.07%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (17.94%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (17.99%) [1][17][21] - Emerging sectors such as AI equipment (140%), lithium battery equipment (96%), humanoid robots (67%), and engineering machinery (55%) led the gains in the mechanical industry, indicating significant investment opportunities [1][27][25] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth in AI and technology sectors, with engineering machinery expected to maintain an upward trend and domestic demand gradually recovering from the bottom [1][30][39] Group 2 - Domestic economic conditions are currently experiencing a "weak recovery" phase, with fixed asset investment showing a differentiated pattern: manufacturing > infrastructure > real estate [2][30] - The general manufacturing sector is expected to enter a new investment cycle, driven by improved PPI and inventory levels, with a focus on high-end upgrades and stock replacement [39][46] - The export sector is benefiting from the competitive strength of leading Chinese companies, with a notable increase in orders for high-end machinery from Japan, reflecting the active investment in domestic high-end manufacturing [55][56] Group 3 - The AI-driven technology sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with hardware demand and new process iterations accelerating, particularly in AI PCB technology and humanoid robots [3][30][61] - Solid-state battery technology is at a critical juncture, with leading battery companies expanding production capacity, indicating a significant opportunity for battery equipment manufacturers [3][30][61] - Investment recommendations include focusing on technology growth assets such as AI PCB equipment, humanoid robots, and solid-state battery equipment, as well as engineering machinery and general automation sectors [4][61]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in operational quality, with operating cash flow reaching a historical high, indicating potential valuation uplift driven by industry demand and global competitiveness [1]. Investment Highlights - The domestic engineering machinery sector is at the beginning of a cyclical improvement, with overseas markets expected to see structural enhancements. The company's strong product capabilities and global layout position it well for future demand resilience and competitiveness, leading to valuation increases. Projected EPS for 2025/2026/2027 are 0.96 CNY, 1.22 CNY, and 1.45 CNY respectively. A target price of 26.88 CNY is set based on a 28x PE for 2025, with a recommendation to accumulate [2]. Performance Growth - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 66.104 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.136 billion CNY, up 46.58% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 21.324 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.48%, and net profit of 1.919 billion CNY, up 48.18% year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1-3 2025 were 27.62% and 11.01%, respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [3]. Operational Quality Improvement - The net operating cash flow for Q1-3 2025 was 14.547 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.55%. In Q3 2025, the net operating cash flow was 4.413 billion CNY, up 12.07% year-on-year. The company has effectively managed its expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing positive trends [4]. International Market Expansion - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved overseas sales revenue of 26.302 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%, with overseas revenue accounting for 60.26% of total revenue. The gross margin for overseas main business improved to 31.18%, driven by price adjustments, product structure optimization, and cost reduction measures. The company launched over 30 new energy products, expanding its electric product matrix [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry has experienced a decline of 1.75% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.58 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 industries [2][13]. - Year-to-date, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 33.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.65 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [13][27]. - The report highlights the ongoing technological innovations leading to industry upgrades, particularly in the electrification and dexterous hand segments of engineering machinery [4][46]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the mechanical equipment sector has seen a 1.75% decline in the last two weeks, with the general equipment sector showing the highest increase of 0.40% among its sub-sectors [2][21]. - The top three performing stocks in the mechanical equipment sector over the past two weeks are Huafeng Co., World Co., and Jikai Co., with increases of 46.59%, 40.02%, and 36.22% respectively [20][22]. Valuation - The current PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 31.51 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: General Equipment at 43.79 times, Specialized Equipment at 31.81 times, and Automation Equipment at 49.06 times [3][25]. Industry News - The report notes that the demand for engineering machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects and accelerated funding [5][46]. - Exports of engineering machinery products have shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 29.78% in September [5][46]. Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology and Green Harmonic, which are positioned well in the market due to their strong competitive advantages and growth potential [44][47].

2025年以来，中国工程机械行业景气度持续攀升，呈现内外需共振格局。中国工程机械工业协会数据显 示，挖掘机9月总销量同比增长25.4%，其中出口量首次超越内销，释放出行业复苏的积极信号。与此 同时，行业盈利质量显著改善，2025年上半年工程机械行业归母净利润同比增速达21.59%，利润增幅 明显高于营收增长。在此背景下，富国基金旗下工程机械ETF（认购代码：516253/基金代码： 516250）于11月14日正式发行，为投资者把握本轮产业机遇提供高效配置工具。 行业步入新发展阶段，三重动力构筑长期成长逻辑 工程机械行业作为国民经济的基础性产业，与基建投资周期紧密相关。当前行业正经历深刻变革，呈现 出"国内更新需求筑底回升、海外出口高速增长、行业电动化转型加速"的三轮驱动特征。 国内需求方面，中国工程机械工业协会数据显示，2025年1-9月挖掘机内销量同比增长21.50%，企稳回 升态势明确。这一增长主要受益于多重因素，在"稳增长"政策背景下，基建投资稳步增加，特别是水利 水电等特大工程项目开工，其超长建设周期将持续拉动工程机械需求；同时，存量设备更新周期叠加国 家更新政策，带动设备更新需求的释放；且随着应用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales of China's new energy heavy truck market are expected to exceed 200,000 units in 2025, with October sales reaching a record high of 20,100 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 144% [1][4][6]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the domestic new energy heavy truck market sold 20,100 units, a decrease of 17% month-on-month but a significant increase of 144% year-on-year [3][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the new energy heavy truck sales reached 157,900 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 178% [19][22]. Market Trends - The new energy heavy truck market has shown consistent growth, with 33 consecutive months of year-on-year increases, and has outperformed the overall heavy truck market for 29 months [6][8]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in the overall heavy truck market reached 24.69% from January to October 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's 11.93% [8][19]. Company Performance - In October 2025, 15 companies sold over 100 units, with 12 companies exceeding 300 units and 5 companies surpassing 2,000 units [10][15]. - The top three companies in sales for October were XCMG with 3,453 units, SANY with 3,030 units, and FAW Jiefang with 2,693 units [12][15]. Market Share - In October 2025, the market shares of the top five companies were XCMG (17.19%), SANY (15.08%), FAW Jiefang (13.41%), Sinotruk (12.54%), and Shaanxi Automobile (10.44%) [15]. - The cumulative market share of the top ten companies reached 92.38%, with the top five accounting for 66.65% [15]. Future Outlook - The expectation for the new energy heavy truck market in 2025 is to maintain high sales levels, with an average monthly sales target of over 21,000 units in the last two months to ensure the annual target is met [6][24].