机械设备行业 标配 （维持） 机械设备行业双周报（2025/10/31-2025/11/13） 技术革新迎产业升级，关注工程机械电动化&灵巧手等细分领域 2025 年 11 月 14 日 投资要点： ◼ 行情回顾： 分析师：谢少威 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523010003 电话：0769-23320059 邮箱： xieshaowei@dgzq.com.cn 相关报告 机械设备本周涨跌幅：申万机械设备行业双周下跌1.75%，跑输沪深300指数 1.58个百分点，在申万31个行业中排第27名；申万机械设备板块本月至今下 跌1.43%，跑输沪深300指数2.75个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第26名； 在申万31个行业中排名第7名。 机械设备二级板块本周涨跌幅：截至2025年11月13日，申万机械设备行业的 5个二级板块中，从双周表现来看，通用设备板块涨幅最大，为0.40%。其他 板块表现如下，专用设备板块下跌0.53%，轨交设备Ⅱ板块下跌0.94%，工程 机械板块下跌3.58%，自动化设备板块下跌4.92%。 机械设备个股涨跌情况：截至2025年11月13日，机械设备板块双周涨幅前三 个股分别为华 ...

2025年以来，中国工程机械行业景气度持续攀升，呈现内外需共振格局。中国工程机械工业协会数据显 示，挖掘机9月总销量同比增长25.4%，其中出口量首次超越内销，释放出行业复苏的积极信号。与此 同时，行业盈利质量显著改善，2025年上半年工程机械行业归母净利润同比增速达21.59%，利润增幅 明显高于营收增长。在此背景下，富国基金旗下工程机械ETF（认购代码：516253/基金代码： 516250）于11月14日正式发行，为投资者把握本轮产业机遇提供高效配置工具。 行业步入新发展阶段，三重动力构筑长期成长逻辑 工程机械行业作为国民经济的基础性产业，与基建投资周期紧密相关。当前行业正经历深刻变革，呈现 出"国内更新需求筑底回升、海外出口高速增长、行业电动化转型加速"的三轮驱动特征。 国内需求方面，中国工程机械工业协会数据显示，2025年1-9月挖掘机内销量同比增长21.50%，企稳回 升态势明确。这一增长主要受益于多重因素，在"稳增长"政策背景下，基建投资稳步增加，特别是水利 水电等特大工程项目开工，其超长建设周期将持续拉动工程机械需求；同时，存量设备更新周期叠加国 家更新政策，带动设备更新需求的释放；且随着应用 ...

中国新能源重卡市场2025年全年销量最终能达到多少？ 目前看来，超过20万辆已是大概率事件。 2025年10月份，新能源重卡在重卡市场终端销量的占比达到28.65%，较上月占比（28.93%）略微缩窄，高于2024年全年占比 （13.61%），比去年同期渗透率（18.45%）高了超10个百分点。上图还可见，自2025年3月份开始，重卡市场新能源渗透率再也没 有低于过20%，自6月份起均超过25%，最近的9月份和10月份更是连续两个月超过28%。2025年1-10月，重卡市场新能源渗透率达 到24.69%（去年同期渗透率为11.93%），用气势如虹来形容最近几月新能源重卡市场也毫不夸张。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 根据第一商用车网掌握的最新数据，2025年10月份，国内新能源重卡市场共计销售2.01万辆（注：本文数据来源为交强险实销口径， 不含出口和军车，下同），环比今年9月份下降17%，同比则继续增长，增幅达到144%。从数字上看，今年10月份新能源重卡市场 2.01万辆的销量不仅是史上最高的10月份，也是史上第二高销量（仅次于2025年9月份）。截止到2025年10月份，新能源重卡月销量 共5次超过1. ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that going global has become a "second growth curve" for Chinese companies, driven by pressures in the domestic market and rising external tariff barriers [8][19]. - The "Going Global TOP 100 Index" shows that the average return of these companies in 2024 is 32.65%, significantly higher than other main board stocks by 10 percentage points [9][31]. - The structure of companies going global has shifted from traditional industries to technology-intensive sectors like consumer electronics, which now account for 13% of the TOP 100 [10][41]. Group 2 - Chinese companies are climbing the value chain along the "rabbit ear curve," extending towards R&D design and high-end manufacturing, as well as branding and services [11][45]. - The strategic shift from "product export" to "capacity export" is evident, although direct foreign investment remains significantly lower than goods exports [12][19]. - Geopolitical risks are identified as the primary challenge for companies, including sanctions and local regulatory requirements [13][19]. Group 3 - Hong Kong is positioned as a "bridgehead" for companies going global, serving as a crucial financing platform and a connection between the mainland and global markets [15][19]. - Successful case studies include companies like Anker Innovations, TCL, and Weichai Power, which have leveraged localization, technology acquisitions, and full industry chain layouts [19][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "soft capabilities" such as understanding regulations, compliance governance, localization, and ecological collaboration for successful international expansion [19][48]. Group 4 - The report highlights that 90.6% of industries have higher gross profit margins overseas compared to domestic markets, with significant differences in sectors like computer equipment and logistics [22][24]. - The performance of companies that expand overseas is often linked to their high return on invested capital (ROIC) in domestic markets, indicating a selection effect where only the best companies venture abroad [26][30]. - The report notes that the growth in overseas revenue has become a key driver for performance, accounting for 38.2% of the growth in mid-year earnings for 2025 [25][30]. Group 5 - The report identifies a significant trend of consumer electronics companies expanding globally, with a notable rise in their representation in the TOP 100 list compared to traditional industries [41][45]. - Companies like Lenovo and Luxshare Precision are highlighted for their technological advancements and their roles as key suppliers in the global market [45][47]. - The report concludes that Chinese consumer electronics firms are transitioning from "Made in China" to "Created in China" and "Brand from China," enhancing their global presence [45][46].

Decarbonization and Digitalization Transformation Empowering High-quality Development 这份亮眼业绩印证了三一重工聚焦全球化、数字化与低碳化发展的"三大转型"战略取得显著成效。 来源：美通社 上海2025年11月13日 /美通社/ -- 三一重工股份有限公司（股票代码：600031）近日发布2025年第三季度 财报，核心业绩指标均实现强劲增长： 在非洲市场，由三一硅能承建的赞比亚乔瓦矿山太阳能项目于11月1日成功并网。该项目整合矿区现有 资源，采用先进微电网能源系统，高效满足矿车及工程机械的能源需求。这一举措不仅为矿山运营提供 稳定电力支持，也助力赞比亚打造"绿色矿山"示范基地。 此外，三一重工通过与奥地利奥合国际银行(Raiffeisen International Bank)建立战略合作伙伴关系，在欧 洲市场实现突破，双方将探索能源项目新融资模式，推动欧洲市场业务增长。 数字化转型驱动高质量发展 在2025国际仿真大会上，三一集团展示了融合人工智能的创新仿真技术，重点涵盖实时仿真、智能驾 驶、作业仿真及多机协同等领域。通过 ...

评级调高方面，11月11日，中泰证券对南钢股份的评级从"增持"调高至"买入"。 | | 1 家最新被调高评级的公司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | | 600282 | 南钢股份 | 中泰证券 | 増持 | 买入 | | | 日期：11月11日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | | 首次覆盖方面，11月11日券商共给出了14次首次覆盖，其中浙能电力获得中原证券给予"增持"评级，中谷物流获得信达证券给予"增持"评级，隆鑫通用获得 国信证券给予"优于大市"评级，新亚强、国泰海通获得国海证券分别给予"增持""买入"评级。 | | | 14家最新被首次覆盖的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 600023 | 浙能电力 | 中原证券 | 增持 | 电力 | | 603565 | 中谷物流 | 信达证券 | 增持 | 航运港口 | | 603766 | 隆鑫通用 | 国信证券 | 优于 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen 87 new listings this year, raising over 240 billion HKD, making it the leading exchange globally for IPO fundraising [1][2] - A total of 16 A-share companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, with over 80 more in the pipeline, indicating a significant trend of A+H listings [1][3] - The successful listings are predominantly from leading companies in their respective industries, with most having a market capitalization exceeding 20 billion HKD [3][4] Group 2 - Notable companies like CATL, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, and Sai Lisi have raised substantial funds, with CATL alone accounting for over 30% of the total fundraising from A+H listed companies [4][5] - The majority of the A+H listed companies are concentrated in the technology and consumer sectors, reflecting a strategic focus on these core areas [4][9] - The performance of newly listed companies has been strong, with 12 out of 16 stocks rising or remaining stable on their first trading day [4][10] Group 3 - There has been a notable trend of H-shares trading at a premium over A-shares for some leading companies, indicating strong international investor confidence [5][9] - A record 302 companies have submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, highlighting a robust interest in the market [6][8] - The influx of A-share companies seeking to list in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the quality and liquidity of the Hong Kong market [9][11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [4][37]. Core Insights - The total market value of public funds heavily invested in the SW Machinery Equipment industry reached 101.42 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38.94% and a year-on-year increase of 36.12%. However, the allocation remains at a low level, with a low allocation ratio of 1.80% [10][11]. - The concentration of holdings in the top stocks has increased, with the combined market value of the top 5, 10, and 20 stocks reaching 44.42 billion, 58.79 billion, and 75.34 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a shift from decreasing to increasing concentration [17][27]. - The report highlights that the automation equipment and engineering machinery sectors are the main focus for fund managers, with significant growth in their market values [35]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry - The total market value of public funds in the SW Machinery Equipment industry has shown positive growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, but the sector remains under-allocated compared to others [10][11]. Subsector Analysis - All subsectors have experienced growth in market value. The automation equipment, engineering machinery, and specialized equipment sectors lead with total market values of 38.17 billion, 22.67 billion, and 20.85 billion yuan, respectively, showing quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 42.73%, 46.79%, and 36.24% [21][27]. Stock Trends - The top ten heavily invested stocks in the SW Machinery Equipment industry have all seen price increases, with notable stocks including Huichuan Technology, Xugong Machinery, and Sany Heavy Industry [27][30]. - The report indicates that the top ten stocks that received increased investments also experienced overall price increases, with Xugong Machinery seeing an increase of 5.376 billion yuan in market value [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies and those with strong export resilience, as well as core companies aligned with industrial upgrades and accelerated domestic substitution [35].

公司点评（R3） 三一重工(600031.SH) 证券研究报告 机械设备｜ 工程机械 归母净利润快速增长，港股上市推进全球化布局 2025 年三季报点评 | 预测指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 732.22 | 777.73 | 891.39 | 1,029.48 | 1,163.45 | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 45.27 | 59.75 | 89.62 | 116.58 | 129.96 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.50 | 0.66 | 0.98 | 1.28 | 1.43 | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.47 | 7.90 | 8.48 | 9.23 | 10.07 | | P/E | 43.66 | 33.08 | 22.06 | 16.96 | 15.21 | | P/B | 2.91 | 2.75 | 2.56 | 2.35 | 2.15 | 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 投资要点： 2025 年 11 月 11 日 评级 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.207 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.919 billion yuan, up 48.18% year-on-year [2][6]. - The domestic industry is recovering from excavators to non-excavators, with Q3 domestic revenue expected to maintain good growth. The overseas emerging markets continue to show strong demand, and European markets may improve, leading to rapid growth in overseas revenue [2][12]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 28.01%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an upward trend in profitability [2][12]. - The successful listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange is expected to enhance the company's global competitiveness, with a positive outlook for market share growth and breakthroughs in high-end markets [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 65.741 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.56%, and a net profit of 7.136 billion yuan, up 46.58% year-on-year [6]. - The Q3 performance specifically showed a revenue of 21.207 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.919 billion yuan [6]. Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic excavator industry saw a year-on-year sales increase of 18% in Q3 2025, driven by equipment upgrades and policy catalysts. Non-excavator equipment also showed significant recovery, with sales of truck cranes, crawler cranes, and truck-mounted cranes increasing by 24.4%, 62.5%, and 20.7% respectively [12]. International Market Analysis - The overall export value of China's construction machinery industry increased by 21.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with emerging markets like Africa and Central Asia showing growth rates of 64% and 60% respectively. The company is expected to maintain good growth in emerging markets while European demand is anticipated to improve due to infrastructure spending [12]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2025 is 9.05%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 14.5 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the domestic construction machinery industry and the anticipated growth in overseas markets. The forecasted net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 8.571 billion yuan and 11.086 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24 times and 18 times [12].