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水井坊:公司事件点评报告:财年开门红业绩稳健,费投优化力度明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with significant optimization in expense investments. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 37.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.25 billion yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights the strong performance of the high-end product "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," which is expected to continue contributing to growth, accounting for 70% of sales. The mid-range products are under pressure, with a projected decline in market share [1][3] - The overseas market has shown significant growth, with revenue from international sales increasing by 65.43% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 82.94%, and the net profit margin was 29.70%, with slight year-on-year changes. The third quarter saw a gross margin of 84.57% and a net profit margin of 42.65%, reflecting improvements [1][2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2.81, 3.01, and 3.32 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 15, and 14 times [3][5] - The report provides a forecast for main operating revenue and net profit, estimating 5,124 million yuan and 1,370 million yuan for 2024, respectively, with growth rates of 3.5% and 8.0% [5][6]